Where are the poor and where will they be?
Between 1990 and 2010, extreme poverty was cut in half. Explore plausible poverty outcomes for 2030 based on models of consumption.

About this visualisation

This page allows you to explore three scenarios for future poverty levels both globally and by region up to 2030. The baseline scenario uses current forecasts for growth in consumption and current inequality levels. The best-case scenario shows what happens with more rapid growth that is shared more equally. By contrast, the worst-case scenario sees slower growth and increasing inequality. Forecasting future poverty levels is difficult, given the inherent uncertainties involved. Poverty modelling develops future scenarios to help inform policymaking. These models rely on simplifying assumptions, often focusing on economic growth and income distribution trends which determine how much poor people benefit from that growth.

Data accessed from source: 20 August 2013.

Scenario details

The best and worst case scenarios are based on the extremes of two elements: For growth, a +/- 2 percentage point margin of error either side of baseline projections of consumption growth (which are driven by economic growth). This is in line with differences observed between past forecasts and actual outcomes. For inequality, an annual 0.25 percentage point change in the shares of national consumption between the poorest 40% and the richest 10%.

About the data

Projections based on Chandy, Ledlie and Penciakova, The Final Countdown: Prospects for Ending Extreme Poverty by 2030 (2013), using the same methodology applied to a dataset updated with 40 country surveys. All data for years after 2010 are forecasts.

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